We took a small step toward getting back into the green for the Player Prop Countdown, going 5-5 for +.87 units thanks to cashing in on a Juwan Johnson touchdown. That brings our season-to-date record to 66-73-1 for -6.93 units. We still have a long way to go in the final four weeks, but there's still a chance we can finish the season with a profit.
With 16 games set for each of the last four weeks of the season, we have plenty of options when trying to find some player props with betting value. I have my top 10 locked in and ready to go. Let's dive into them.
Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 66-73-1 for -6.93 unitsNFL Best Prop Bets for Week 1510) Kirk Cousins OVER 237.5 Pass Yards (-115) via BetMGM
A lot of people are down on Kirk Cousins right now, but it's not his lack of yardage that's been the issue, it's been the turnovers. In fact, he's coming off a 344-yard performance against the Vikings and is averaging 261.2 passing yards per game this season, well above his set total for the Falcons' Monday night game against the Raiders.
The Raiders enter this game ranking 26th in opponent dropback EPA so it's not like Cousins has to face an elite pass-defense. In fact, this will be the worst defense he will have faced in weeks. He may throw an interception or two, but I feel confident he can surpass 237.5 yards through the air.
9) Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+175) via DraftKings
Enough is enough, it's time to get Trey McBride in the end zone. He's been a bit of a statistical anomaly this season, leading the Cardinals in targets (106), receptions (80), and receiving yards (851) but yet he still doesn't have a touchdown. That could end against a Patriots team that has allowed 1.7 passing touchdowns per game, one of the highest marks in the league.
8) Aaron Rodgers OVER 234.5 Pass Yards (-115) via BetMGM
Aaron Rodgers is having far from the season he envisioned with the jets but if there's one team he can still torch with his aging arm, it's the Jaguars. The Jacksonville secondary ranks dead last in the NFL in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.8 yards per throw.
Fresh off a 339-yard performance against the Dolphins, it's time for Rodgers to turn back the clock and sling the rock that the former MVP he is.
7) Jordan Akins Anytime Touchdown (+500) via DraftKings
This bet is an attempt to capitalize off an injury report that has the Browns No. 1 tight end, David Njoku, listed as questionable for their Week 15 game against the Chiefs. If he sits, Jordan Akins will take over as the No. 1 tight end against a Kansas City team that has been the worst at defending tight ends this season. They've allowed the most receptions (86) and receiving yards (1,015) to tight ends in 2024, which means Akins is a fantastic bet to find the end zone at 5-1 if Njoku can't go.
If you agree with me on this, bet this now before the injury news is official. If it's announced Njoku won't play, these odds will shorten in a hurry.
6) De'Von Achane UNDER 12.5 Rush Attempts (-105) via BetMGM
The Miami Dolphins have completely abandoned the run lately, running the ball on just 28.93% of plays over their last three games. As a result, De'Von Achane has run the ball more than 12 times just twice in his last seven games.
Raheem Mostert is still questionable this week, but if he does play, that will hurt Achane's rush attempts as well.
5) Jauan Jennings OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113) via FanDuel
Jauan Jennings has been fantastic since slotting in as the No. 1 receiver for the 49ers. He's fresh off a performance where he hauled in seven receptions for 90 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears, and now he gets to play against a team he's already torched once this season. He hauled in 11 receptions for 175 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams back in Week 3.
With the 49ers banged-up at running back, Jennings remains one of the only viable weapons on the offense. I expect Brock Purdy to look his direction early and often against the Rams on Thursday night.
4) Geno Smith UNDER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105) via BetMGM
The Seahawks have started to lean more on their run game in recent weeks. Their pass play percentage over their last three games has been 55.87%, which is a drop off of 6.72% compared to their season average. That has resulted in Geno smith not reaching 35 pass attempts since October 10th against the 49ers.
if that trend continues on Sunday night against the Packers, this should be a nice win for us.
3) Anthony Richardson UNDER 187.5 Pass Yards (-115) via DraftKings
Anthony Richardson is averaging 167.9 passing yards per game this season and now he has to play a road game at altitude against the best secondary in the NFL. Need I say more?
The Broncos rank first in opponent dropback EPA, second in opponent dropback success rate, and fourth in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.1). This is going to be a long game for Tony Rich.
2) Tony Pollard OVER 69.5 Rush Yards (-115) via BetMGM
The Bengals run defense has been horrific lately. They now rank 30th in the NFL in opponent rush EPA and 31st in opponent rush success rate. Rico Dowdle went for 131 yards on just 18 carries against them on Monday night and Najee Harris went for 75 yards on just 16 carries the week before.
Tony Pollard, who's coming off a 102-yard performance against the Jaguars, could have one of the best games of his season against this Cincinnati defense.
1) Nick Chubb UNDER 43.5 Rush Yards (-120) via BetMGM
The Browns have begun to shy away from handing the ball to Nick Chubb. He played just 34% of snaps against the Broncos two weeks ago and just 36% of snaps last week against the Steelers. The decision to use Jerome Ford more often has been a smart one. Chubb is averaging only 3.13 yards per carry this season while Ford id averaging 4.6.
It's also worth considering if the Chiefs have the lead during the game, which the point spread indicates is likely to happen, the Browns will have to turn to their pass game leaving fewer opportunities for Chubb to run the ball.
